Australia vs India: India are set to face Australia in the third Test of the five-match Border-Gavaskar Trophy at the Gabba in Brisbane, starting on Saturday, December 14. The series is evenly poised at 1-1, with Australia bouncing back in the pink-ball Test in Adelaide after India delivered the first blow in the series opener in Perth. This Test is a return to the scene of India’s historic 2021 victory, where they became the first visiting team to win at the Gabba in 33 years.

Pitch Report

The Gabba is traditionally known for its pace and bounce, but this year the pitch is expected to have a healthy covering of grass due to recent rain, which might aid fast bowlers early on. The pre-Christmas Test conditions could favor more seam movement and bounce, making it a challenging surface for batting. Gabba curator David Sandurski noted that pitches in the early half of the Australian summer usually provide more pace and are a bit fresher.

Head-to-Head

Australia and India have faced each other 125 times in Tests with Australia leading the head-to-head 46-33, with 29 matches drawn. However, since 2001, both teams have won once each at the Gabba, with India’s famous victory in 2021 marking a significant moment in the series.

India in Gabba

India have a mixed record at the Gabba with one win, one draw, and five losses in seven Tests. The famous 2021 victory remains their highlight, where they defied the odds with a weakened team to triumph over a full-strength Australia. This time, with star players like Virat Kohli, Jasprit Bumrah, and Ravichandran Ashwin returning, India will aim to replicate that success.

Australia in Gabba

The Gabba has been a fortress for Australia, especially in the pre-Christmas Tests. They have a strong record at the venue, having been unbeaten between 1988 and 2021. However, since India’s historic win, Australia have lost one more Test here, indicating vulnerabilities, especially in conditions that do not suit their traditional pace and bounce.

Last 5 Meetings

1. December 6, 2024: Australia won by 10 wickets
2. November 22, 2024: India won by 295 runs
3. June 7, 2023: Australia won by 209 runs
4. March 9, 2023: Draw
5. March 1, 2023: Australia won by 9 wickets

Form Guide

Australia’s recent form has been mixed, winning three of their last five matches and losing two, including a defeat against the West Indies. India, on the other hand, have struggled with form, winning just one of their last five Tests, with the majority of their recent losses coming in overseas conditions.

Australia vs India Lineups

Australia:

1. Usman Khawaja
2. Nathan McSweeney
3. Marnus Labuschagne
4. Steve Smith
5. Travis Head
6. Mitchell Marsh
7. Alex Carey (wk)
8. Mitchell Starc
9. Pat Cummins (c)
10. Nathan Lyon
11. Josh Hazlewood

India:

1. Rohit Sharma (c)
2. Yashasvi Jaiswal
3. Shubman Gill
4. Virat Kohli
5. KL Rahul
6. Rishabh Pant (wk)
7. Nitish Kumar Reddy
8. Ravindra Jadeja
9. Akash Deep
10. Mohammed Siraj
11. Jasprit Bumrah

Key Players

Australia:

• Usman Khawaja: In great form with the bat, scoring consistently.
• Mitchell Starc: His pace and swing could be key on a bouncy Gabba pitch.
• Steve Smith: A class player who thrives under pressure.

India:

• Virat Kohli: Back in form and looking to score big.
• Jasprit Bumrah: One of the best fast bowlers in the world who could exploit the conditions.
• Ravindra Jadeja: His all-round ability will be crucial in both batting and bowling.

SWOT Analysis: Australia vs India – Third Test at Gabba

Australia

Strengths:

1. Home Advantage: Playing at the Gabba gives Australia a significant advantage. The venue’s fast, bouncy pitches favor their fast bowlers like Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, and Josh Hazlewood, who are well-suited to exploit these conditions.
2. Experienced Batting Line-up: Steve Smith, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, and Travis Head form a strong top and middle order, capable of applying pressure on the Indian bowlers. Their experience and skill are crucial in high-pressure situations.
3. Depth in Bowling Attack: The presence of Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, and Nathan Lyon provides Australia with a well-rounded bowling attack that can take 20 wickets on any surface. Lyon’s spin bowling can add another dimension, particularly if the pitch begins to wear down.
4. Team Unity and Confidence: After their recent win in Adelaide, the team’s morale is high, and they will aim to maintain their positive momentum. The confidence from a successful previous Test win could be a motivating factor.

Weaknesses:

1. Dependence on Starc and Cummins: While they are key bowlers, Australia can struggle if one or both of them have an off day. The backup options in the pace department (like Michael Neser) don’t offer the same level of threat.
2. Inconsistency in Recent Performances: Although Australia won the second Test, they have been inconsistent in the past year, losing games to West Indies and New Zealand. They need to address these lapses in form to remain competitive.
3. Batting Middle-order Stability: Players like Travis Head and Mitchell Marsh are known for inconsistency and can be vulnerable under pressure. They need to perform consistently to build a strong total.
4. Pressure in Boxing Day Tests: Historically, Australia has faced challenges in post-Christmas Tests at Gabba, with teams like India and the West Indies exploiting conditions that are not conducive to their usual pace and bounce.

Opportunities:

1. Utilizing Local Conditions: The Gabba pitch offers a good opportunity for the Australian fast bowlers to shine and for spin to play a role if the pitch starts to break up. This suits their style of play and can help in dominating the Indian batsmen.
2. Mental Advantage from 2021 Victory: The psychological edge gained from ending India’s unbeaten run at the Gabba in 2021 will be a motivating factor. Australia will look to replicate that victory and reclaim the momentum.
3. Improving Series Scoreline: Winning the third Test would give Australia a lead in the series, putting them in a strong position heading into the remaining two matches.

Threats:

1. Indian Fast Bowling: With the return of Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj, and potentially an in-form Ravindra Jadeja, the Australian batting line-up could face significant challenges, especially early in the innings.
2. Weather Conditions: Rain forecasted for the first two days could disrupt Australia’s plans, particularly their reliance on fast bowling. Wet weather might favor Indian bowlers more than Australian ones.
3. Player Fatigue: Playing back-to-back Tests can lead to fatigue, especially with star players like Cummins and Starc. Overuse in such conditions might affect their performance.
4. Doubt over Nathan Lyon: Lyon’s effectiveness could be impacted if the pitch isn’t favorable for spin or if the Indian batsmen counter him well.

India

Strengths:

1. Balanced Bowling Attack: India’s bowling unit is well-rounded with Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj, and Ravindra Jadeja in excellent form. They offer a variety of options, including pace, seam, and spin, which could be crucial on a bouncy Gabba pitch.
2. Star Power in Batting: Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma, and Shubman Gill form a formidable top order. The presence of Yashasvi Jaiswal adds youthful exuberance and promise. The Indian team will be looking to replicate their 2021 performance where they won in Brisbane without key players.
3. Mental Edge from Previous Series: India’s win at the Gabba in 2021 gives them a psychological advantage. The ability to perform under pressure in difficult conditions will be a key factor.
4. Depth in Bowling Options: With Ravindra Jadeja and Ravichandran Ashwin, India has two world-class spinners who can exploit any weaknesses in the Australian middle order. The return of Bumrah adds an extra dimension to the attack.

Weaknesses:

1. Inexperienced Players: Players like Yashasvi Jaiswal and Shubman Gill are relatively inexperienced at the highest level. Their adaptation to Australian conditions and the challenging Gabba pitch could be a potential weakness.
2. Dependence on Key Players: India’s batting strength is heavily reliant on Kohli and Rohit. If they fail, it could expose vulnerabilities in the middle order, particularly KL Rahul and Rishabh Pant.
3. Pace Concerns: While Bumrah and Siraj are key bowlers, there’s a lack of quality backup in the pace department. If they struggle or get injured, India could face issues with pace variation.
4. Weather Conditions: Rain and wet conditions could impact India’s plans, potentially reducing their effectiveness with the new ball and limiting opportunities for spinners like Ashwin and Jadeja to operate effectively.

Opportunities:

1. Exploiting Early Season Conditions: The Gabba pitch could assist Indian bowlers early on, allowing Bumrah and Siraj to use their pace and movement effectively. The overcast conditions and moisture could play into their hands.
2. Proven Track Record at Gabba: India’s historic win at the Gabba in 2021 gives them a psychological edge and an opportunity to put pressure on Australia early in the series.
3. Team Unity: The camaraderie among the Indian players, especially after their triumph at the Gabba, will be a motivating factor to perform well and continue their positive momentum.

Threats:

1. Australian Conditions: The Gabba’s fast, bouncy pitch could be challenging for the Indian batsmen, who are more accustomed to spin-friendly or slower surfaces.
2. Fatigue from Back-to-Back Tests: Playing consecutive Tests in foreign conditions can be exhausting, affecting both mental and physical performance.
3. Weather Disruptions: Forecasted rain could disrupt India’s plans, particularly their fast bowlers’ ability to utilize conditions to their advantage.
4. Pressure to Deliver: There will be added pressure on the Indian team to maintain consistency and replicate their historic 2021 performance at the Gabba.

Australia vs India Prediction

With the series tied and both teams evenly matched, the third Test at the Gabba is expected to be a closely fought contest. The grass-covered pitch and overcast conditions could suit India’s bowling attack better, making them favorites to regain the upper hand in the series. However, Australia’s strong batting line-up and home advantage might tilt the balance in their favor.

Prediction: India to win

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