Marta Kostyuk vs Aryna Sabalenka: Aryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk will battle it out under the lights at the Manolo Santana Stadium in the quarterfinals of the Madrid Open on Wednesday night. Sabalenka, the World No. 1 and two-time Grand Slam champion, holds a commanding 2–0 lead in their head-to-head and enters as the overwhelming favorite. Kostyuk, however, is showing signs of growth in 2025 and will look to produce a major upset.
Head-to-Head
Sabalenka leads 2–0
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Previous Meetings:
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Sabalenka def. Kostyuk (Hard)
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Sabalenka def. Kostyuk (Clay)
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Player Comparison
| Category | Marta Kostyuk | Aryna Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Country | Ukraine | Belarus |
| Age | 22 | 26 |
| Height | 5’9″ (175 cm) | 6’0″ (182 cm) |
| Weight | ~137 lbs (62 kg)* | ~170 lbs (77 kg)* |
| Plays | Right-Handed | Right-Handed |
| Backhand | Two-Handed | Two-Handed |
| Turned Pro | 2018 | 2015 |
| Career High Ranking | 16 | 1 |
| Current Ranking | 36 | 1 |
| Career Titles | 1 WTA | 19 WTA, 3 Slams |
| Career W/L Record | 106–90* | 358–167* |
| 2025 W/L Record | 14–9 | 28–5 |
| Prize Money | ~$3M* | ~$21M* |
Form & Outlook
Kostyuk has had a solid start to 2025, displaying flashes of her aggressive baseline game and improved mental strength. However, she has struggled to close matches against top-tier opponents. Reaching the quarterfinals here shows her upward trajectory.
Sabalenka has been nearly unstoppable this season. Her raw power, improved consistency, and mental maturity have made her a force on both hard and clay courts. With a 5–1 clay record this year, she’s in fine rhythm for another deep tournament run.
Surface Analysis
Sabalenka’s blend of power and aggression plays surprisingly well on clay. Though not her most natural surface, her recent results suggest increasing comfort with the slower bounce. Kostyuk is more agile and crafty, which suits the clay, but she’ll need to absorb and redirect Sabalenka’s heavy shots flawlessly.
Marta Kostyuk vs Aryna Sabalenka Prediction
Sabalenka’s firepower and current form give her a clear edge. Kostyuk may have moments where she dictates play, but sustaining that level across two sets against the world’s best is a tall task.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in 2 sets.
