MADRID OPEN SF 2025 – Lorenzo Musetti vs Jack Draper Prediction ,H2H, and Match Analysis

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MADRID OPEN QF 2025 – Lorenzo Musetti vs Jack Draper Prediction ,H2H, and Match Analysis

Lorenzo Musetti vs Jack Draper: Friday’s semifinal at the Mutua Madrid Open will be a high-stakes rematch as Italian shotmaker Lorenzo Musetti faces Britain’s big-hitting Jack Draper. While Musetti is chasing a maiden Masters 1000 final, Draper has dominated this rivalry — and aims to keep his perfect record intact with a fourth straight win over the Italian.

Head-to-Head: Draper Leads 3–0


Draper has had Musetti’s number, winning all three of their previous encounters — all on indoor hard courts. Most recently, Draper dispatched Musetti 6-2, 6-4 in the 2024 Vienna semifinals. However, this will be their first meeting on clay, adding a new dimension to the matchup.

Player Comparison

Attribute Lorenzo Musetti Jack Draper
Age 23 23
ATP Rank 11 6
Height 6’1″ (185 cm) 6’4″ (193 cm)
Weight 172 lbs (78 kg) 187 lbs (85 kg)
Plays Right-handed Left-handed
Backhand One-handed Two-handed
Turned Pro 2019 2018
Career Titles 2 3
Career W/L 144–116 93–55
YTD Record (2025) 12–5 14–4
YTD Titles 1
Prize Money $8.64 million $6.79 million

 

Current Form: Both Catching Fire in Madrid

Draper, has pieced together an impressive run on clay, knocking out Tallon Griekspoor, Matteo Berrettini (via retirement), Tommy Paul, and Matteo Arnaldi with some of his finest baseline work of the year.

Musetti, meanwhile, has looked like a title contender. He’s beaten Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alex De Minaur, and Gabriel Diallo — all in straight sets — showcasing improved movement and elite court coverage on the slower surface.

Surface Edge: Clay is the Wild Card


This is uncharted territory in their rivalry. Musetti’s one-handed backhand and variety make him a natural fit for clay. Draper, traditionally stronger on hard courts, has proven he can adapt — his 5–1 record on clay this year speaks volumes. With Madrid’s altitude aiding his serve, Draper’s weapons still pack a punch here.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Jack Draper Prediction


Draper owns the head-to-head, but Musetti is playing his best tennis of 2025. This one could come down to which player handles the clay better in key moments. If Draper can keep points short and attack early, he holds the edge. But if Musetti turns it into a grindfest, he can flip the script.

Prediction: Draper in three sets

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