PAK vs SA 3rd ODI: The National Stadium in Karachi is set for a thrilling encounter as Pakistan and South Africa battle for a spot in the Pakistan Tri-Nation Series final. With New Zealand already securing their place, this match acts as a virtual semi-final, adding extra stakes to an already intense rivalry.

Pakistan holds the upper hand historically, winning four of their last five encounters against South Africa. However, both teams come into this match after losses to New Zealand, making this a must-win clash.

Match Details

Date: Wednesday, 12th February 2025
Time: 14:30 PKT
Venue: National Stadium, Karachi
Tournament: ODI Tri-Series in Pakistan, 2025 (Match 3)

Head-to-Head Record

• Total Matches: 86
• Pakistan Wins: 33
• South Africa Wins: 52
• Tied: 0
• No Result: 1
• Win Percentage: Pakistan (38.82%) | South Africa (61.18%)

Pitch Report

The National Stadium in Karachi has traditionally been a batting-friendly venue, with an average first-innings score of 237 in One Day Internationals (ODIs). The pitch offers good bounce and carry, facilitating stroke play, while the relatively shorter boundaries encourage aggressive batting. However, seamers can extract early movement, especially under lights, and spinners often find assistance during the middle overs.

A notable trend at this venue is the balanced success between teams batting first and those chasing. Out of 76 ODIs played here, teams batting first have won 36 times, while teams batting second have secured 37 victories. This balance makes the toss decision crucial, as captains must weigh the benefits of setting a target against the potential challenges of chasing under lights, where dew can be a significant factor.

ODI Statistics at National Stadium, Karachi:

• Total Matches Played: 76
• Batting First Wins: 36
• Batting Second Wins: 37
• Tied Matches: 0
• No Result Matches: 3
• Average First Innings Score: 237
• Highest Team Score: India’s 374/4 against Hong Kong on June 25, 2008
• Lowest Team Score: Pakistan Women’s 93 all out against Sri Lanka Women

Weather Conditions:

On February 12, 2025, Karachi is expected to experience hot conditions with plenty of sunshine. The high temperature is forecasted to be around 33°C (91°F), cooling down to approximately 13°C (56°F) in the evening. Dew could become a factor in the second innings, potentially making it challenging for bowlers to grip the ball. No rain is anticipated, ensuring an uninterrupted match.

Toss Impact:

Given the balanced win record between teams batting first and second, the toss decision at the National Stadium can be pivotal. Captains might prefer to bowl first to take advantage of early seam movement and to mitigate the challenges posed by dew in the later stages of the game.

In summary, the National Stadium in Karachi offers a competitive environment for both batters and bowlers, with conditions that can influence match strategies significantly.

PAK vs SA 3rd ODI Lineups

Pakistan

Fakhar Zaman, Babar Azam, Kamran Ghulam, Mohammad Rizwan (c), Agha Salman, Tayyab Tahir, Khushdil Shah, Shaheen Afridi, Naseem Shah, Akif Javed, Abrar Ahmed.

South Africa

Temba Bavuma (c), Matthew Breetzke, Jason Smith, Wiaan Mulder, Kyle Verreynne, Kagiso Rabada, Senuran Muthusamy, Corbin Bosch, Junior Dala, Lungi Ngidi, Tabraiz Shamsi.

Probable Best Players

Pakistan:

• Batter to Watch: Fakhar Zaman has been in impressive form, recently scoring 84 off 69 balls against New Zealand. His aggressive approach at the top of the order can provide Pakistan with a strong start.

• Bowler to Watch: Shaheen Afridi continues to be a pivotal figure in Pakistan’s bowling attack. Despite conceding runs in his last outing, he managed to claim three wickets, showcasing his knack for breakthroughs.

South Africa:

• Batter to Watch: Matthew Breetzke delivered a standout performance with a 150-run innings against New Zealand. His ability to anchor the innings while maintaining a healthy strike rate makes him a key player for South Africa.

• Bowler to Watch: Tabraiz Shamsi has been effective in limited appearances, taking 9 wickets in 4 matches during the 2023 World Cup at an average of 23.55 and an economy rate of 5.60. His four-wicket haul against Pakistan in that tournament was instrumental in securing a narrow victory for South Africa.

PAK vs SA 3rd ODI Prediction

Scenario 1: Pakistan Batting First

• Projected Score: Pakistan is expected to post a total between 250-270 runs.
• Reasoning: With an aggressive top order featuring Fakhar Zaman and Babar Azam, Pakistan can capitalize on the flat Karachi pitch. The surface offers good bounce, allowing stroke makers to play their shots freely. Mohammad Rizwan and Agha Salman can provide stability in the middle overs, while power-hitters like Khushdil Shah can accelerate towards the end.

Scenario 2: South Africa Batting First

• Projected Score: South Africa is likely to set a target between 240-260 runs.
• Reasoning: Temba Bavuma and Matthew Breetzke will be key at the top, but they must counter Pakistan’s dangerous pace attack led by Shaheen Afridi and Naseem Shah. The Karachi pitch tends to assist spinners in the middle overs, and Abrar Ahmed could prove to be a challenge. If South Africa can handle the early swing and middle-overs spin.

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