While the India-Australia semifinal is a battle of familiar foes, the South Africa vs New Zealand encounter carries an element of intrigue due to their limited recent encounters. Since the 2017 Champions Trophy, these two sides have met only three times in ODIs—twice in World Cups and once in the recent tri-series in Pakistan. Even across formats, they have played just four Tests, with two featuring a depleted South African squad.
Despite both teams playing their first match in Lahore this tournament, New Zealand holds the advantage in terms of conditions, having toured Pakistan three times recently and riding a six-match winning streak in the country.
Lahore Pitch Report: A Batting-Friendly Surface
Lahore has produced high-scoring games, with an average first-innings total of 316 in the group stage—the highest among all venues in the tournament. The first four games saw teams surpass 300, though the last match, played on a used pitch, saw a drop to 273.
Seamers have found more swing here than at other venues, especially in the afternoon. The key for bowlers has been pitching the ball up early on, as swing diminishes later in the innings.
Seam Bowling Effectiveness by Length in Lahore (CT 2025)
| Length | Powerplay (ER) | Middle Overs (ER) | Death Overs (ER) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full | 7/93 (6.8) | 1/70 (6.1) | 2/95 (9.2) |
| Good | 1/95 (4.6) | 1/35 (3.1) | 1/41 (6.1) |
| Short | 2/128 (5.9) | 3/183 (6.3) | 6/168 (10.8) |
Williamson vs. Rabada & Maharaj: A Key Battle
Kane Williamson is New Zealand’s top scorer against South Africa and has registered two unbeaten centuries in his last two ODIs against them, albeit over a span of six years. He faces a significant challenge against Kagiso Rabada and Keshav Maharaj.
Williamson has struggled against Rabada, scoring at just 46.96 per 100 balls without being dismissed. His dismissals in the league stage have come against right-arm seamers delivering length balls that straighten slightly—Rabada’s signature delivery.
In New Zealand’s last match, Williamson occupied 94 balls in the middle overs but scored just 60 runs, including 55 dot balls. Since the 2019 World Cup, he has scored at just 74.22 against spin in this phase, with a high dot-ball percentage (48.3%). To counter Maharaj on Lahore’s high-scoring surface, Williamson must be more aggressive and avoid getting bogged down.
South Africa’s Struggles Against Finger Spin
Lahore has been the least spin-friendly venue in the tournament, with minimal turn and dew making it harder for spinners in the second innings. However, South Africa has struggled significantly against finger spin in ODIs since 2023, with key batters like Rassie van der Dussen, Temba Bavuma, and Tony de Zorzi posting low averages against off-spin.
SA Batters vs. Finger Spin in ODIs Since 2023
| Player | Inns | Runs | SR | Dis | Ave | Dot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aiden Markram | 24 | 313 | 96.01 | 4 | 78.25 | 41.5 |
| Rassie van der Dussen | 22 | 267 | 86.68 | 8 | 33.37 | 44.1 |
| Heinrich Klaasen | 18 | 260 | 122.06 | 3 | 86.66 | 41.9 |
| Temba Bavuma | 15 | 184 | 79.65 | 7 | 26.28 | 53.1 |
| Tony de Zorzi | 9 | 122 | 82.99 | 5 | 24.40 | 50.6 |
New Zealand possesses two quality finger spinners in Mitchell Santner and Michael Bracewell, both of whom have excelled in this tournament and will be key in exploiting South Africa’s weaknesses.
Klaasen vs. Santner: A Battle of Titans
The clash between Heinrich Klaasen, one of the best hitters of spin, and Mitchell Santner, an elite finger spinner, promises fireworks. Klaasen has been in stellar form, scoring five consecutive ODI fifties, four of them at a strike rate above 100.
Santner, with his high release point, thrives in good-length and back-of-length deliveries. However, Klaasen is exceptional at using the depth of the crease against such deliveries. Since 2023, he has struck at 104 against good-length spin deliveries and an explosive 165 against shorter deliveries. How Santner counters Klaasen’s attacking approach will be a decisive factor in the game.
Seam Attacks Must Adapt to Lahore Conditions
South Africa vs New Zealand have the tallest seam attacks in the tournament, featuring Marco Jansen, Kyle Jamieson, and Will O’Rourke. However, their batting units have shown contrasting results against high-release seamers—while South African batters have dominated, New Zealand’s lineup has struggled, except for Will Young, who averages 62 and strikes at 109 against tall seamers.
Lahore’s surface has favored skiddy bowlers who mix up pace and lengths rather than hitting the deck hard. The standout bowlers here—Nathan Ellis and Azmatullah Omarzai—have been the shortest and most
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