Pakistan’s hopes in the 2025 ICC Champions Trophy are hanging by a thread after suffering two consecutive defeats in the group stage. Their latest loss to arch-rivals India has put them on the brink of elimination, leaving fans wondering: Is Pakistan already out of the tournament? Or is there still a way for them to qualify for the semifinals?

Pakistan’s Tough Road to the Semifinals

Pakistan’s campaign started on a disastrous note with a 60-run loss to New Zealand, which severely dented their net run rate (NRR). They followed it up with another setback—a six-wicket defeat to India in Dubai, courtesy of a masterclass century by Virat Kohli (100 off 111 balls). With zero points from two matches, Pakistan is in a desperate situation, but technically, they are not out yet.

Here’s what needs to happen for Pakistan to stay in the hunt for a semifinal spot:

1. Pakistan Must Beat Bangladesh Convincingly

Pakistan’s final group game is against Bangladesh, and they must win by a massive margin to not only secure two points but also improve their net run rate.

2. India & Bangladesh Must Defeat New Zealand

For Pakistan to have a shot, New Zealand must lose both of their remaining matches against India and Bangladesh. This would create a three-way tie on two points each (Pakistan, Bangladesh, and New Zealand), making net run rate the deciding factor for the second semifinal spot.

3. Pakistan Must Have a Superior Net Run Rate

If all three teams end up with two points, the team with the best net run rate will qualify alongside India for the semifinals. This means Pakistan will not only need to win big against Bangladesh but also hope that New Zealand suffers heavy defeats.

What Happens if New Zealand Wins a Game?

Pakistan’s fate is completely out of their hands. If New Zealand wins even one of their two remaining matches, Pakistan will be officially eliminated before even playing their last game against Bangladesh.

Current Scenario: Are Pakistan’s Hopes Fading?

While the mathematical possibility remains, Pakistan’s chances are extremely slim. They no longer control their own destiny and must rely on favorable results from other teams. Given their poor net run rate, their task is even more difficult.

Conclusion: Is Pakistan Out?

Not yet—but they are on the verge of elimination. A series of highly unlikely results must go in their favor for them to reach the semifinals. As things stand, their chances of defending their Champions Trophy title look bleak.

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